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Reviewing accuracy of risk assessment methods of 577 findings from 79 samples, this paper found that actuarial methods were the best predictors vs. professional judgment. It found great consistency in the predictive accuracy of both empirically and conceptually derived actuarial measures, which means psychologically informed risk assessments may have strong predictive accuracy and clinical use for specific cases (general, sexual, violent, etc.)

This project was conducted by 156 parole and probation officers on 997 sexual offenders in 16 jurisdictions in Canada and 2 American states (Iowa and Alaska) for risk assessment methodologies. It found that trained community supervision officers can reliably predict sex offense recidivism, specifically with STATIC-2007, STABLE-2007 and ACUTE-2007 assessments.

This research bulletin builds upon the first by introducing concepts related to structured assessment and instruments that foster collaboration among probation officers, clinicians and treatment providers